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The Potential Risks and Challenges of SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn Mission

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The Challenges of Space Exploration

Space, an inherently hostile environment for humans, poses significant risks. Unprotected, a person can survive for no more than two minutes in a vacuum. The journey to space itself requires astronauts to be strapped to a controlled explosion of chemical propellants, underscoring the dangers involved.

Since the first manned spaceflight in 1961, fewer than 700 people have made it to space. Companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin aim to change that, planning to send thousands of people into orbit. SpaceX has even begun taking bookings for orbital flights, marking the dawn of a new era in space exploration.

Risks Associated with Space Travel

Space travel is dangerous, as history reminds us. Two catastrophic shuttle disasters—Challenger in 1986 and Columbia in 2003—claimed the lives of 14 astronauts. In total, 30 astronauts and cosmonauts have died either during missions or in training.

There have been countless close calls as well. For instance, two astronauts currently aboard the International Space Station (ISS) are staying an additional six months after NASA deemed their return vehicle, Boeing’s Starliner, unsafe. Technical issues, including a malfunctioning thruster, forced NASA to abandon Starliner as a safe re-entry vehicle. This incident is a stark reminder of the ongoing challenges in human space travel.

On the ground, the risks are equally concerning. In 1967, three Apollo 1 astronauts tragically perished in a launch pad fire. Similarly, about 120 people died in a 1960 launchpad explosion of an unmanned rocket in Russia. One of the deadliest incidents occurred in 1996 when a Chinese rocket crashed into a village, claiming hundreds of lives.

Despite these tragedies, the fatality rate for space travelers is about 3%. While this may seem low, it surpasses the risks associated with extreme sports like BASE jumping or wingsuit flying. Only activities like solo free-climbing or mountaineering at altitudes above 6,000 meters in the Himalayas pose a similar threat to life.

The Rise of Civilian Space Travel

The 2020s have ushered in the era of civilian astronauts. In the wake of the Challenger disaster, which claimed the life of schoolteacher Christa McAuliffe, NASA ceased sending civilians to space. However, private companies have embraced the idea, with SpaceX leading the charge.

In 2021, SpaceX’s Inspiration 4 mission made history as the first all-civilian crew to reach orbit. Since 2020, 69 private astronauts have flown into space, with 46 crossing the Kármán line, the recognized boundary of space.

Despite the progress, the commercial space sector has not been without its challenges. In 2014, a test flight of Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo resulted in one fatality and another serious injury. Similarly, a pre-launch test in 2007 caused three deaths and three injuries. Although no civilians have died in space, the risks remain evident.

SpaceX, the industry’s biggest player, boasts a workforce of 13,000 and a market valuation of $180 billion. While it has not yet experienced in-flight fatalities, the company has recorded one death and hundreds of injuries during ground operations.

Polaris Dawn: Pushing the Boundaries of Civilian Spaceflight

Polaris Dawn, initially scheduled for launch in August 2024, promises to take civilian space travel to new heights. This mission, delayed by a helium leak and adverse weather, will push the envelope by reaching an altitude of 435 miles—higher than any astronauts have traveled since the Apollo era.

However, with new heights come new risks. The crew will be exposed to radiation levels equivalent to 20 years of Earth’s exposure in just a few hours. While NASA is conducting research to understand the long-term effects of radiation exposure in space, this remains a significant concern for the astronauts’ health.

The mission also includes a historic spacewalk, the first for civilian astronauts. This walk will be performed using spacesuits that have never been tested in space. Unlike traditional spacecraft with airlocks, the SpaceX Dragon capsule will expose the entire interior to the vacuum of space, with all crew members relying solely on their suits for survival.

Historically, spacewalks have been fraught with danger. In 1965, Russian cosmonaut Alexei Leonov nearly died during the first spacewalk. Other astronauts have suffered temporary blindness, near-drowning, and even close encounters with floating off into space. The spacesuits themselves must withstand rapid temperature changes of hundreds of degrees, with even the smallest tear or puncture potentially proving fatal.

The Rewards of Space Exploration

While space travel comes with undeniable risks, the rewards are equally profound. The Polaris Dawn crew will contribute to research on high-radiation environments, offering invaluable insights into the long-term health effects of spaceflight. This research could pave the way for future deep-space exploration.

In addition to scientific advancements, the crew will experience the overview effect, a psychological shift reported by many astronauts who have viewed Earth from space. This profound perspective can inspire a deeper understanding of our planet’s fragility and the interconnectedness of life.

The Future of Space Tourism

As the commercial space industry continues to grow, it is also becoming a lucrative business. In 2023, the space tourism market was valued at $750 million, with projections estimating a growth to $5.2 billion by 2033. Reusable rockets have significantly lowered the cost of space launches, making space tourism more accessible—at least for the wealthy.

Currently, a Virgin Galactic suborbital flight costs $450,000, while a ticket to Earth’s orbit with SpaceX is priced at $55 million. While these prices are out of reach for most people, advancements in technology may eventually bring space travel to the masses.

For space tourism to truly flourish, it must become as safe as possible, both in perception and reality. Many experts believe space travel could follow the same trajectory as aviation, which initially catered to the rich and thrill-seekers but eventually became a safe and reliable mode of transport for the masses.

Conclusion

Space travel is undeniably risky, but as companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin continue to push the boundaries of exploration, the potential for discovery and innovation is immense. While the dangers of space travel are real, the rewards—from scientific breakthroughs to the sheer wonder of viewing Earth from above—make it a pursuit worth the risks.

Team ASB

Team ASB

This post is created by team Art & Science Bog

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